Nordic Power Road Map 2050: Strategic Choices Towards Carbon Neutrality (NORSTRAT)

Research project

Project period
2011-2015

 
In collaboration with
SINTEF Energy Research
STOCKHOLM Environment Institute (SEI)

Funding source
Nordic Energy Research (norden)

Project leader
Research Scientist Ingeborg Graabak, SINTEF Energy Research

Description
 

The Nordic region has sufficient RES potential to develop a fully carbon neutral electricity system, even if demand increases due to electrification of transport and the heating sector. However, investment lead times are very long and there is no common knowledge basis among Nordic countries how, and through what policies, carbon neutrality will be pursued. Furthermore, how the system develops and which challenges will emerge are dependent on the approach taken towards Europe. A more open approach might result in opportunities and development in the Nordic countries beyond what would happen with a Nordic focus alone.

Two alternative paths, and their implications for the Nordic region, need to be considered:

1. NORDIC BALANCE - A CARBON NEUTRAL REGION RELATED TO ELECTRICITY AND TRANSPORT.
   Further utilization of RES is necessary to achieve electricity balance in a carbon neutral Nordic region. Electrification of the transport sector and partly of the heating sector by large scale deployment of heat pumps (HP) will increase the demand but also offer possibilities for balancing and storage of electricity to cope with variability in load and RES production. The production portfolio, the electricity balance as well as the demand profile will impact future need for transmission grids within and between the countries.
    
2. EUROPEAN HUB - THE NORDIC REGION AS A MAJOR EXPORTER OF GREEN ELECTRICITY FOR
   EUROPE.
   In addition to becoming carbon neutral, the Nordic region may utilize its large RES potential to become an electricity hub for Europe. Such a future will result in a different electricity system; it will require other/more transmission infrastructure, electricity prices will be more influenced by the European prices etc.

It is not clear which of the 2 paths will yield the most benefits for the Nordic region. This project will quantify technical and to some degree economic consequences as well as perform policy and governance studies on how to achieve them.

The overall objective is to build knowledge and understanding among politicians and decision makers and actors in the power industry about possible carbon neutral futures for an integrated Nordic power system in a time perspective up to 2050. The knowledge and understanding is based on qualitative scenario analysis of impacts on the electricity, the transport and the heating system combined with the necessary governance aspects to enable the transformation.

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