Work Package 1

The aim of this package is to increase knowledge of long distance travel (quantitatively and qualitatively). The quantitative analyses will cover both the present demand and the historical development of national and international long distance travel to and from Denmark. Destinations, distances and transport modes for different journey purposes will be analysed based on The Long Distance Travel Survey, The Holiday and Business Travel Survey and probably The Family Expenditure Survey combined with register data. Travel behaviour of e.g. different socioeconomic groups will be analysed from a theoretical as well as an empirical perspective with special attention to the young and elderly and to groups with high and low travel activity. This part will be developed in close cooperation with WP 2.

The empirical analyses contribute to developing a strategic model for forecasting transport kilometres by mode. The proposed forecasting model is a dynamic, elasticity driven system of equations for different modes, based on own- and cross-elasticities encompassing cost, time, quality and service as well as socioeconomics. The above mentioned data might be supplemented with a stated Preference survey to get more information about mode and destination choice. The model will be used for the scenario analysis in WP5 to assess policy measures suitable to affect long distance travel. A special study will examine the limits of daily travel and will be based on the National Travel Survey combined with a special web survey for workers with very long commuting distance. A part of this study will be performed as a Ph.D. study. In this the empirical analysis hopefully will be combined with a more theoretical analysis of the drivers behind long distance travel and the relation to globalisation.