WP5: Scenarios and policy measures
The role of this WP is to assess the implications of the changes and dynamics of transport demand that are uncovered in WPs 1-4, and to investigate opportunities to intervene with policy measures in order to help fulfil long term climate objectives. An internal workshop and two scenario workshops, including Danish and international experts, are central elements in this WP. WP5 will include four methodological steps where a Post doc project will help develop the methodology and policy analysis sections in the steps 2-4.
5.1 Conceptual model of mobility and climate change. The role of this task is to provide a conceptual bridge between results from WPs 1-4 and the scenario building analysis. A logical system description of linkages between driving forces, mobility manifestations, policy levers and climate impacts will be established. The conceptual bridge will draw from existing forecast models (e.g. Fosgerau et al 2004; Schafer 1998), literature of socio-economic mobility drivers e.g. (Banister & Stead 2001; ICCR 2004; Mercado et al 2007), and the themes explored on WPs 1-4. The stability of normally assumed limits to mobility (based on time or money budget restrictions) under the potentially changing circumstances of drivers will be discussed. Moreover potential limitations on mobility due to climate change concerns will be made operational as a ‘climate window’ for transport based on recommendations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Kahn et al 2007), and existing work on mitigation opportunities (e.g. ECMT 2007, Chapman 2007). The ‘climate window’ will serve as a benchmark against which the mobility scenarios will be compared.
5.2 Scenario methodology. The scenario methodology will be based on an extensive review of the strengths, weaknesses and diversity of methods utilized in the assessment of long-term effects of policies for reducing CO2 emissions and for the promotion of sustainability goals (e.g: UK studies (Foresight 2004, Hickman et.al., 2005), European studies (ICCR et all.,2004, Schippl et all 2008) and other similar recent country studies, and comparative studies (Börgeson et. al. 2006)).
5.3 Policy responses. This stage will provide a comparative overview of alternative policy instruments, their potential for combined implementation and their potential to become trend-breakers of the drivers´ medium and long run effects on CO2 emissions, and a first assessment of political viability of measures. Specifically this will entail carrying out a survey of the pool of policy measures available and of ways to combine them into policy packages enhancing their effectiveness for CO2 emission reductions, together with a consolidation of information and assessments provided by the previous work packages by means of an internal communication workshop.
5.4. Formulation of alternative scenarios. The goal is to construct two main scenarios reflecting a “high mobility future” and a “moderate mobility future” for the year 2030. The scenario building process will facilitate the construction of a path towards a ‘most desirable future’ adopting specific policy measures targeting the drivers. The activities will include: identification of plausible trends of key common parameters (e.g. levels of car ownership, urban structure, degree of globalization, average travel speeds, social adaptation), arrangement of a Workshop to validate expected levels of variation within two scenarios and to help give an assessment on the feasibility of implementation of the selected policy packages in the Danish context. A (Meta) data base will be developed to monitor the systematic formulation of the main scenarios.