The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently completed its sixth assessment report, which includes a synthesis report summarizing the findings of the three previous working group reports. In the period leading up to the IPCC’s seventh assessment report, the synthesis report will provide an important basis for political decision-making in the coming years.
The launch was marked in Copenhagen on 20 March at a joint press conference held by the University of Southern Denmark (SDU), the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), and DTU.
Here, Sebastian Mernild, Professor and Head of the SDU Climate Cluster, presented the results from the first working group report, of which he was one of the lead authors. As a representative for Denmark in the IPCC, Adrian Lema, Head of the Danish Centre for Climate Research at DMI, presented the results of the second working group report. Finally, Kirsten Halsnæs, Professor of Climate Change and Economics at DTU, presented the results from the third working group report from April last year, of which she was one of the lead authors.
The full Danish IPCC press conference can be seen on DR TV.
We will exceed the 1.5 degree global warming threshold
In an attempt to boil down the IPCC synthesis report to the shortest possible message, Kirsten Halsnæs said that the world is likely to exceed the 1.5 degree threshold that was the goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement. In addition, the extreme climate events we’re seeing today will accelerate sharply as we surpass the 1.5 degree rise.
However, she also calls for cautious optimism, as many of the measures implemented in recent years have actually proven useful with documented effect. For example, the IPCC’s third working group report shows that wind and solar energy are now cheaper than energy derived from fossil fuels.
“Solar cells and wind power—both land- and sea-based—are cheaper today than fossil fuels. In Denmark, we’ve known for a long time that green energy is cheaper, but this report has been adopted by all the world’s countries, so in that sense it’s big news. Research and development—and the application of new green technologies—have led to falling prices. So, you can draw the very simple and optimistic conclusion that R&D has made a difference, and that using new technologies is beneficial,” said Kirsten Halsnæs.
The IPCC also concludes that greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by 50% by 2030 compared to 1990, for less than $100 per tonne—and that half of this could be reduced for less than $20. However, Kirsten Halsnæs stressed that limiting greenhouse gas emissions is not enough.
“We also have a debt from the past. If we get above 1.5 degrees, there’ll be a higher concentration of greenhouse gases than what corresponds to 1.5 degrees. So that level must be reduced. It’s not enough just to limit emissions, we need to remove those greenhouse gases from the atmosphere,” she says.
“What seems to be the most obvious solution today is to capture carbon and store it. I think carbon capture and storage will be hugely important, and I’ve also noticed that there’s quite a lot of support for it in Denmark—even from some of the NGOs that have previously opposed it.”
Developing countries must be included
As something new, in its sixth assessment report, the IPCC has assessed the potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions through behavioural changes. Within the food system—i.e. through changing what people eat and avoiding food waste—it’s possible to reduce emissions by up to 44%. There are also good opportunities to make reductions within transport, construction, industry, and increased electrification.
“Big changes can be made through behavioural changes, but it’s important to look at how we implement them. For example, developing countries want to be able to eat meat or have a big car like the rest of us,” says Kirsten Halsnæs.
“Developing countries won’t put the climate at the top of their list of development priorities. We need to incorporate climate policy into economic and sustainable development, and I think that’s a good agenda. After all, it’s only right that a poor population should also have access to energy, water, and food. So you have to figure out how to incorporate greenhouse gas reduction into that agenda.”
Here you can read more about the IPCC’s third assessment report. Kirsten Halsnæs was a lead author.
The IPCC synthesis report can be read here.
