"We must not lose focus on the green transition"

Consideration for both the climate and the environment

Marie Münster is a professor of energy systems analysis at DTU Management and spends every minute of her working life generating new knowledge about how the green transition can be realised in the most cost-effective way. This means that she calculates how we can most intelligently and at the lowest possible cost ensure that our needs for electricity, heating, and fuel are met using as few fossil resources as possible—and preferably none at all one day.

Most recently, she and her fellow researchers have begun to expand their analyses to also consider whether the solutions remain within planetary boundaries, Marie Münster explains:

"So far, we have focused mainly on how much CO2 the energy system emits, but how does it affect our planning of the future energy system if, for example, we also consider how many critical metals or how much biomass may be included? Our energy must not only be climate-friendly. It is also about taking the environment in general into account. After all, it is not sustainable to have an energy system that emits zero CO2 but causes a lot of other problems in our environment."

The requirements for the energy system of the future are that it must be able to deliver secure energy at a reasonable price without negative consequences for the climate and the environment.

"Security of supply, reasonable prices and sustainability are the three factors that need to be balanced in the equation. This is known as the energy trilemma, and all three factors are important when planning the green energy system of the future. Fortunately, renewable energy, e.g. from solar and wind, can contribute to both low electricity prices and security of supply – while reducing CO2 emissions," says Marie Münster.

The road to security of supply

One leg of the trilemma, security of supply, took centre stage in Europe in 2022 when gas supplies were severely challenged as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but security of energy supply will remain important in a fossil-free future when we can no longer meet fluctuating demand for electricity simply by shovelling more or less coal or gas into power plants. The path to security of supply in a fossil-free world must be paved with renewable energy coupled with flexibility, says the professor:

"When our green energy production is challenged by calm or cloudy weather, we need other ways to obtain energy. We can achieve this through flexibility in the energy system. Our analyses show that we can achieve flexibility in four ways: backup, where we use biogas in power plants, for example; transmission, where we buy electricity from our neighbouring countries; storage, where we store heat on a large scale in our district heating network or as electricity in batteries, for example; and finally, shifting energy consumption. The Danes showed that we were quite good at this during the energy crisis in 2022, when high electricity prices led us to do our laundry or charge our electric cars at night," says the professor.

When electricity prices occasionally skyrocket – typically during periods of so-called dunkelflaute (i.e. calm and cloudy weather) – Marie Münster often receives calls from journalists, some of whom try to use the high electricity prices as an argument that the green transition is a dangerous path to take. The professor then tries to calm things down.

"You shouldn't be alarmed by the short periods when electricity prices fluctuate significantly. It's the average price we need to look at, and that shows that we have a good price for electricity in this country," says Marie Münster.

Wind, sun and peace

Marie Münster's thoughts on the green transition extend beyond just a fossil-free energy system. In the professor's view, the green transition also has the potential to increase a country's security.

"When nation states produce energy from wind turbines and solar cells, they are also less vulnerable in a war situation, because it is more difficult to attack a country's energy infrastructure if it is based on decentralised renewable energy, as wind turbines and solar cells are spread across more geographical locations than, for example, coal-fired power plants," says Marie Münster, who also hopes that the green transition can be the path to a more peaceful world.

"Some crises are also about access to energy, and it's about who controls the resources. If all states have their own green energy supply, they are less dependent on oil and gas-exporting states, for example. During the energy crisis in 2022, when the war in Ukraine started and gas prices rose sharply, Denmark fared better than other European countries because we were not as dependent on Russian gas," says Marie Münster, who also has high hopes for what the green transition can bring:

"With renewable energy, there is an opportunity to decentralise energy production both between states and within countries. This could lead to a better distribution of resources. If we achieve a world with a more equal distribution of resources, I believe we will also achieve more peace. Perhaps this is an idealistic hope, but I believe that the green transition can also be the path to a more peaceful world."